Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C8 0xc846…62cd crypto 55 markets active 19h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-3%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate62%34W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$54
other 24% −$92
sports 10% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.3% -3.9% 60% 48% -3.9%
≤30d 25 +6.3% -3.9% 60% 48% -3.9%
≤90d 25 +6.3% -3.9% 60% 48% -3.9%
all 55 -5.0% -14.1% 62% 55% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 55% -14.1%
10% -22.3% 31% -22.3%
15% -29.8% 22% -29.8%
20% -36.7% 16% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses34 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage145d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$39 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $122 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$5 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$19 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 12 $75 +$20 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 12 $72 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 12 $120 +$20 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 12 $47 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Feb 12 $200 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 12 $100 +$10 +10%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs Nepal (Game 1) Feb 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Feb 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 12 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Feb 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 12 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 12 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 12 $98 +$42 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 12 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $60 −$9 -16%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 11 $70 −$56 -81%
Getafe CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Feb 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $46 +$19 +41%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $63 +$7 +11%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $40 +$23 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $14 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $36 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 20h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $122 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $8 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $13 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records