Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C8 0xc844…d1be politics 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$3
politics 31% −$4
crypto 20% −$1
sports 8% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$709) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage97d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 29 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $692 $0 -0%
Will Jonas Sulzbach win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 17 $715 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Quintero win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Apr 16 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $709 $0 -0%
Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 National League Championship Series Apr 16 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $721 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 14 $707 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $148 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $65 $0 -0%
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 0m
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 6m
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 20m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,034 30m
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 39m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,003 50m
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $28 57m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $844 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $230 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,075 1h
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? SELL No 100¢ $50 50d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $39 50d
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? BUY No 100¢ $38 50d
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? BUY No 100¢ $13 50d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $20 50d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $12 50d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $19 50d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $9 50d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $21 50d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $677 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? SELL No 99¢ $51 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $13 73d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $631 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $15 73d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $0 73d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $76 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $23 73d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 73d
Will Jonas Sulzbach win Big Brother Brasil 26? SELL No 100¢ $518 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 83 history records