Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc843…2a42 crypto 522 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$164 (+10%) realized +$162 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%249W / 271L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$1
14 days+$86
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$52
sports 37% +$93
finance 1% −$10
world 1% $0
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +7.1% -3.1% 43% 42% -14.0%
≤30d 520 +10.1% -0.4% 48% 47% -2.7%
≤90d 520 +10.1% -0.4% 48% 47% -2.7%
all 520 +10.1% -0.4% 48% 47% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 47% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 46% -12.0%
15% -18.6% 44% -20.5%
20% -26.6% 40% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses249 / 271
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)520 / 522
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 72¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+101%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 238 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$7 +325%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$30 +2934%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $8 +$27 +332%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 40¢ $2 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 23¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $2 5h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $2 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $2 25h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 80¢ $2 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $35 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 3¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 16¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.06 · official $8.06 (match) · 823 history records