Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc842…543d sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-9%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$9
other 29% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -39.3% -45.1% 36% 36% -23.3%
≤30d 11 -39.3% -45.1% 36% 36% -23.3%
≤90d 11 -39.3% -45.1% 36% 36% -23.3%
all 11 -39.3% -45.1% 36% 36% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.1% 36% -23.3%
10% -50.4% 36% -30.6%
15% -55.2% 36% -37.3%
20% -59.6% 27% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$22 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 37¢ 38¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$20 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$8 +75%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $33 −$32 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $19 −$18 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $99 +$36 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $11 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $9 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $19 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $31 23h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $19 23h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $37 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 38h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $33 39h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $65 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 45h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $19 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $135 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $99 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.72 · official $66.72 (match) · 21 history records