Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc841…64dc crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%25W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$2
crypto 34% $0
other 12% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 21 -0.7% -10.2% 76% 0% -11.6%
all 30 -0.5% -9.9% 83% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -11.3%
10% -18.6% 0% -19.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -27.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses25 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage101d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $126 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $123 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $114 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 05 $109 −$17 -16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 9? May 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 8? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 2? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 27? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 26? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 24? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 23? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 21? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 20? Mar 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 19? Mar 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 16? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 9? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $45 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $64 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $126 12h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $123 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $123 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $91 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $138 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $114 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $114 19d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records