Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc83f…b7a9 other 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$472 (-1%) realized −$482 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate28%41W / 105L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$1,220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$44
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$233
tech 7% −$134
crypto 4% −$4
world 4% +$46
politics 2% +$3
finance 1% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -5.4% -14.4% 22% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 24 -5.9% -14.9% 17% 0% -11.5%
all 146 -11.3% -19.8% 28% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 4% -10.3%
10% -27.5% 1% -18.9%
15% -34.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -40.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$1,220
Realized−$482
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses41 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)146 / 161
History coverage166d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 77¢ 84¢ $147 $161 +$14 (+9%)
Tom Lee charged by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $113 $113 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? No 82¢ 78¢ $115 $109 −$6 (-5%)
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $105 $107 +$3 (+3%)
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 65¢ 65¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 66¢ 60¢ $80 $73 −$7 (-9%)
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2027? No 60¢ 60¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 53¢ 56¢ $64 $67 +$3 (+5%)
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 50¢ 56¢ $60 $67 +$7 (+11%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 60¢ 60¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 46¢ 42¢ $55 $50 −$5 (-9%)
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 38¢ 40¢ $46 $47 +$2 (+3%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 15¢ 16¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Amouranth divorced by June 30? Jun 16 $631 +$2 +0%
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? Jun 13 $661 −$1 -0%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 09 $166 −$45 -27%
Another Elon baby by June 30? Jun 04 $591 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 31 $616 +$33 +5%
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? May 27 $781 −$27 -3%
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? May 25 $854 −$54 -6%
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? May 19 $1,037 −$61 -6%
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? May 19 $359 −$40 -11%
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? May 17 $253 −$67 -26%
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? May 12 $130 −$3 -2%
Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026? May 12 $189 +$8 +4%
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026? May 11 $237 −$56 -24%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $270 −$49 -18%
New pandemic in 2026? May 09 $347 −$13 -4%
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Apr 28 $378 −$8 -2%
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? Apr 28 $2,267 −$10 -0%
Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses? Apr 24 $1,144 +$26 +2%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Apr 03 $164 −$5 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Apr 02 $794 −$6 -1%
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30? Apr 02 $20 −$3 -15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Apr 02 $326 −$14 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 02 $500 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $5,000 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Mar 14 $18,805 +$68 +0%
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 13 $6,189 −$5 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Mar 13 $2,207 +$14 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 28 $110 +$14 +13%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 28 $210 +$13 +6%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 28 $210 +$13 +6%
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 28 $200 +$13 +7%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 28 $210 +$8 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Feb 28 $200 +$7 +4%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 28 $200 −$2 -1%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 28 $210 −$3 -1%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 28 $210 −$2 -1%
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 28 $100 −$6 -6%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Feb 25 $200 +$17 +9%
Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 04 $210 +$18 +8%
Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 02 $210 +$17 +8%
Theo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 21 $100 −$6 -6%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 21 $110 −$4 -3%
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch? Jan 21 $110 +$12 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $10 −$4 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by January 31? Jan 19 $100 −$59 -60%
Flying Tulip FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? Jan 16 $50 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 42¢ $8 34m
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 41¢ $8 5h
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 61¢ $3 5h
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? BUY No 77¢ $15 6h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $39 16h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $3 16h
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 66¢ $5 16h
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 60¢ $10 17h
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 60¢ $2 17h
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? SELL No 77¢ $20 20h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $0 20h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $42 20h
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 55¢ $0 20h
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 64¢ $37 20h
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2027? SELL No 59¢ $11 20h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 55¢ $21 20h
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 60¢ $12 20h
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 55¢ $0 21h
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2027? BUY No 59¢ $6 22h
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $2 23h
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $3 24h
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2027? BUY No 59¢ $5 24h
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $6 25h
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? BUY No 77¢ $12 29h
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? BUY No 77¢ $4 30h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 15¢ $3 30h
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $16 31h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $37 38h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $2 41h
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 60¢ $12 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,219.73 · official $1,219.73 (match) · 2838 history records