Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc83f…697e politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$10
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$1
other 25% −$24
crypto 20% +$3
world 10% +$3
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.7% -11.9% 25% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 15 +3.4% -6.5% 67% 40% -12.1%
≤90d 18 -8.0% -16.7% 61% 33% -13.6%
all 21 -11.5% -19.9% 62% 29% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 29% -13.7%
10% -27.6% 14% -22.0%
15% -34.6% 5% -29.5%
20% -41.0% 5% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage148d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 81¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 83¢ 82¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $37 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $39 $0 +0%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 27 $53 −$4 -7%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $24 +$4 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +5%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $73 −$14 -19%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $3 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 29 $2 $0 +10%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Nets vs. Celtics May 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Feb 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of January? Feb 28 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $65 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $38 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 82¢ $69 1h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $37 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $39 1h
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 86¢ $49 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $55 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $39 12d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 91¢ $53 12d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $37 12d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $57 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $4 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $28 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $32 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $51 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $60 12d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 64¢ $2 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 69¢ $1 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 75¢ $1 29d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 64¢ $3 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $48 29d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $73 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $21 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $10 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $24 29d
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $1 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 29d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 46d
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $1 46d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.98 · official $169.99 (match) · 75 history records