Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc835…cf5f politics 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%12W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$4
sports 23% −$2
other 19% −$3
world 10% −$1
crypto 9% −$2
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 176 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses12 / 164
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)176 / 176
History coverage168d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 176 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $42 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 09 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $52 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $157 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $3 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $136 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 21 $147 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $197 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $110 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $105 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $140 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $4 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $196 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $117 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 19 $99 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $187 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $238 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 6h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 90¢ $48 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 91¢ $48 12d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $52 19d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $52 19d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $51 34d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $52 37d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 93¢ $2 119d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $50 119d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $50 119d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $47 119d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 93¢ $2 120d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $3 120d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $3 120d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 120d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 120d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $2 120d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 94¢ $2 120d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $47 120d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 120d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 98¢ $51 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $51 120d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 120d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 120d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $48 120d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $48 120d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $49 120d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $49 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 651 history records