Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc835…0dbc crypto 599 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$115 (+0%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%588W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$154
14 days+$168
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$62
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +2.5% -7.2% 99% 3% -6.6%
≤30d 428 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 2% -10.5%
≤90d 599 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 2% -9.4%
all 599 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$70 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses588 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)599 / 599
History coverage42d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 599 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $34 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $34 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1188 history records