Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc834…319c other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$164 (-39%) realized −$162 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$64
sports 30% −$50
politics 17% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-58.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 8 -54.4% -58.8% 12% 12% -65.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.8% 12% -65.8%
10% -62.7% 12% -69.1%
15% -66.3% 0% -72.1%
20% -69.6% 0% -74.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$24 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$162
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage487d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Feb 09 $7 $0 -6%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Jun 01 $30 −$7 -24%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Jun 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Jay-Z be named in Epstein files? May 25 $30 −$25 -84%
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? May 08 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Mar 01 $80 −$32 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY 45¢ $75 4h
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? BUY No 6¢ $2 137d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? SELL No 4¢ $7 137d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? BUY No 3¢ $5 137d
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 137d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 35¢ $50 137d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? SELL Yes 8¢ $23 390d
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? BUY Yes 15¢ $40 390d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 390d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 390d
Will Jay-Z be named in Epstein files? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 397d
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? SELL No 86¢ $20 414d
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? BUY No 64¢ $15 466d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 482d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 483d
Will Jay-Z be named in Epstein files? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 483d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 484d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 484d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 486d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 487d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 487d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 487d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.40 · official $78.40 (match) · 24 history records