Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc834…8b42 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-10%) realized −$3 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$19
sports 48% +$24
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -4.8% -13.9% 42% 42% -12.3%
≤30d 43 -4.8% -13.9% 42% 42% -12.3%
≤90d 43 -4.8% -13.9% 42% 42% -12.3%
all 43 -4.8% -13.9% 42% 42% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 42% -12.3%
10% -22.1% 40% -20.7%
15% -29.7% 35% -28.4%
20% -36.5% 28% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 94¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+80%)
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+64%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +237%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$5 +238%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +442%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$3 +165%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 53¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026- BUY 22¢ $2 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 10h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 23h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 25h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 29h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.18 · official $19.18 · 96 history records