Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc832…321b world 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%28W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$8
other 20% −$7
sports 14% +$3
politics 14% −$8
economics 5% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.1% -1.3% 80% 20% -8.0%
≤30d 28 -2.7% -12.0% 39% 11% -8.3%
≤90d 63 -3.5% -12.7% 33% 5% -9.1%
all 77 -6.0% -14.9% 36% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 5% -9.6%
10% -23.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -30.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -37.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses28 / 49
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage526d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $55 −$1 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $62 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $6 +$1 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +37%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $42 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +53%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $78 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $87 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $85 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $39 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $14 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $38 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $44 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $32 +$10 +31%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $32 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 18 $2 $0 -10%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $78 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $4 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $34 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $63 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 18 $61 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $92 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $161 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $12 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $17 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $8 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $29 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.82 · official $42.88 · 293 history records