Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc831…78ec
crypto · 19 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$14 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$4 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 31 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 31 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 31 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 31 $2 +$3 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 31 $2 +$4 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.5% +0.9% 75% 50% +13.2%
≤30d 19 +26.4% +14.4% 74% 58% +11.8%
≤90d 19 +26.4% +14.4% 74% 58% +11.8%
all 19 +26.4% +14.4% 74% 58% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 58% +11.8%
10% +3.4% 47% +1.1%
15% -6.6% 32% -8.7%
20% -15.7% 32% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records