Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc831…0111
other · 166 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$30,226 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$30,492 · open −$106
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$566
Realized−$30,492
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses98 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)164 / 166
History coverage177d
Avg bet$610
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 15 History 164 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,408
7 days−$2,228
14 days−$3,921
30 days−$4,558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 28¢ $27 $200 +$173 (+641%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $27 $165 +$138 (+511%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $27 $130 +$103 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $27 $46 +$19 (+69%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $27 $19 −$8 (-31%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $27 $1 −$26 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $65 $1 −$64 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $65 $1 −$64 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $65 $1 −$64 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $65 $1 −$64 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $65 $1 −$64 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $65 $1 −$64 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $65 $1 −$64 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $991 −$976 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 13 $333 +$44 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$2 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +573%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$90 +1801%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $109 +$36 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$5 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$3 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $700 −$698 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $321 +$134 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $39 +$47 +120%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $100 −$91 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $260 +$92 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $67 −$63 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $930 −$929 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $70 −$19 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $392 +$141 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 31 $421 +$28 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 31 $853 −$853 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 31 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $49 +$10 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 26 $166 +$23 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 26 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 26 $12 +$5 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 26 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $19 −$9 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $34 −$21 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $828 −$828 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $45 +$542 +1197%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $372 +$298 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $166 +$88 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $120 +$229 +191%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $564 −$564 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $7 +$8 +114%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $90 +$73 +81%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $922 −$922 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $997 −$77 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 15 $125 +$26 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $183 +$479 +262%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $389 +$53 +14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $110 +$8 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $721 −$721 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$30,597
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $133 3m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 57m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $700 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $66 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $71 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $117 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $34 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $116 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $85 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 9h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 11h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+139.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +146.6% +123.1% 47% 47% -68.1%
≤30d 47 +79.6% +62.5% 55% 51% -43.2%
≤90d 87 +123.0% +101.7% 60% 51% -50.5%
all 164 +164.9% +139.7% 60% 52% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +139.7% 52% -39.2%
10% ← realistic here +116.8% 46% -45.0%
15% +95.8% 41% -50.3%
20% +76.6% 37% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $566.36 · official $566.43 (match) · 2891 history records