Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc830…52ca world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$2
other 17% $0
crypto 6% −$4
politics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 7% -9.9%
all 40 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -10.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage452d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $33 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $24 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $39 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $22 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $35 −$2 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $12 $0 -2%
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 9–16? May 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $9 −$1 -11%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 29 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Browns draft Abdul Carter? Apr 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Apr 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 21 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 15 $6 $0 +1%
Solana above $130 on March 28? Mar 28 $12 −$4 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $31 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $31 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $23 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $24 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $0 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $15 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $3 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $6 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $6 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $34 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $22 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $11 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.96 · official $32.96 (match) · 105 history records