Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc82f…a08b sports 416 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$743 (+7%) realized +$1,028 · open −$285
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%252W / 162L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$461
14 days+$415
30 days+$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$607
other 27% +$5
crypto 17% −$237
world 0% −$7
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 51% +0.9%
≤30d 91 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 48% -1.9%
≤90d 147 -5.0% -14.0% 57% 47% -1.6%
all 414 +3.2% -6.7% 61% 51% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 51% -3.9%
10% -15.6% 42% -13.1%
15% -23.8% 32% -21.5%
20% -31.2% 22% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$1,028
Unrealized−$285
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses252 / 162
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)414 / 416
History coverage273d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Yes 90¢ 39¢ $500 $217 −$283 (-57%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 70¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$10 -68%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 21 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$9 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$14 -14%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $212 +$74 +35%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +45%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $121 −$121 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $30 +$9 +30%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $116 +$21 +18%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -18%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $15 +$6 +38%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -45%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $10 +$2 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $121 +$44 +37%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $251 +$26 +10%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -28%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $111 +$46 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $303 +$141 +46%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $112 −$88 -78%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -52%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $204 +$94 +46%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$38 -19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +179%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -55%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 +$19 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $211 +$32 +15%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$40 +20%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -56%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 90¢ $502 1h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 62¢ $87 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $286 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $81 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 20h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 73¢ $101 22h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 65¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.84 · official $224.84 (match) · 1197 history records