Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc82f…66a7 sports 733 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 155d only
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,020 (-3%) realized −$9,852 · open −$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +117% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +81% what you keep after slip
Net edge+81%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%357W / 234L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$456per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$1,171est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,067now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21,157
7 days−$18,981
14 days−$19,253
30 days−$18,278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$16,130
sports 40% −$1,341
world 10% +$6,126
crypto 8% −$453
finance 0% +$1
politics 0% +$19
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+96.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 527 +113.6% +93.3% 60% 52% -23.8%
≤30d 549 +109.0% +89.1% 58% 50% -23.0%
≤90d 555 +110.9% +90.8% 58% 50% -20.4%
all 569 +117.3% +96.6% 59% 51% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +96.6% 51% -15.8%
10% +77.8% 43% -23.9%
15% +60.6% 34% -31.2%
20% +44.9% 27% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +113% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +37% → late +189% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$191 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$2,067
Realized−$9,852
Unrealized−$168
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses357 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,171
Open positions28
Markets (closed)591 / 733
History coverage155d ⚠
Avg bet$456
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 591 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 43¢ $1,848 $1,714 −$134 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $254 $255 +$1 (+0%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 51¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 46¢ 55¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 44¢ 46¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 28¢ 10¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-63%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-75%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-86%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $14 $1 −$13 (-95%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+55%)
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Theo James announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
James Collier announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Baidu have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 265 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Jun 25 $1 +$15 +2839%
Will Am I Okay? (Megan Moroney) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annua Jun 25 $0 $0 -113%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 -1096%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 25 $0 $0 -19%
Will Franz Wagner win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Jun 25 $0 $0 -258%
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Jun 25 $0 $0 -18%
Will Lamar Jackson win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Geno Smith win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Virgin (Lorde) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Aw Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ja'Marr Chase win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Azizam (Ed Sheeran) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMM Jun 25 $0 $0 -113%
Will Megan Moroney win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Award Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Portrait (Samara Joy) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GR Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wesley So win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Jun 25 $0 $0 —%
Will annual inflation increase by less than 24% in December? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 25 $0 $0 +226%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 25 $0 +$2 +5384%
Will MK.gee win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will The Right Person Will Stay (Lana Del Rey) win Album of the Year a Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tyreek Hill win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Le Havre win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Jun 25 $0 $0 —%
Will Michael Porter Jr. lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA Jun 25 $0 +$2 +339850%
Will Harris English win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brentford finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Jun 25 $0 $0 —%
Will Ashton Jeanty win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA seas Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lamar Jackson win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ordinary (Alex Warren) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GR Jun 25 $0 $0 -113%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sleep Token win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA sea Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Casey Jarvis win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Naoyuki Kataoka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Jun 25 $0 +$2 +284850%
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Aw Jun 25 $0 +$8 +76682%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Max Greyserman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will PinkPantheress win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awar Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 25 $0 $0 +44%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 BUY 30¢ $42 1m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 70¢ $2 2m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,724 2m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 57¢ $217 3m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 57¢ $567 4m
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 BUY 46¢ $8 4m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 57¢ $573 4m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 57¢ $572 5m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 57¢ $568 5m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 57¢ $572 6m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 58¢ $577 6m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 BUY 53¢ $33 8m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 61¢ $7 8m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 58¢ $576 8m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 70¢ $11 10m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 70¢ $1 10m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY 38¢ $2 12m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 58¢ $21 13m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 82¢ $78 13m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY 29¢ $1 13m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 70¢ $78 17m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 60¢ $1 18m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Wil BUY 84¢ $14 18m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 BUY 65¢ $1 19m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tür BUY 79¢ $58 19m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 62¢ $314 20m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 BUY 52¢ $8 20m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY 87¢ $6 21m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 76¢ $93 29m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 76¢ $8 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,066.62 · official $25,640.55 · 3500 history records