Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:01:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C8 0xc82e…0d6a other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 615d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,134 (+3%) realized +$2,146 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%17W / 38L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$1,246per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 615d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$13,143
sports 6% −$2,939
tech 4% −$3,202
crypto 3% +$997
politics 2% +$168
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -85.0% -86.4% 9% 9% -83.4%
≤30d 18 -79.2% -81.2% 11% 11% -58.9%
≤90d 18 -79.2% -81.2% 11% 11% -58.9%
all 55 +31.0% +18.5% 31% 29% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.5% 29% +0.1%
10% +7.1% 29% -9.5%
15% -3.2% 25% -18.2%
20% -12.7% 25% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +90% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,681 vs −$537 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$660
Realized+$2,146
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 63
History coverage615d
Avg bet$1,246
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $347 $370 +$23 (+7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $269 −$31 (-10%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes $25 $21 −$4 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $51 +$33 +66%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $129 −$127 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $41 −$40 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$222 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06? May 06 $60 +$85 +142%
Will Inter win on 2025-05-06? May 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Devin Haney vs. Jose Ramirez May 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Ryan Garcia vs. Rolly Romero May 03 $60 +$417 +695%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-29? May 01 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 28? Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 28? Apr 26 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-16? Apr 16 $150 +$417 +278%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Mar 28 $3,500 −$3,202 -92%
Lily Phillips has sex with 1000+ men in a day? Jan 02 $6,500 −$83 -1%
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 75m-100m views on day 1? Dec 01 $8,667 −$4,697 -54%
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 50m-75m views on day 1? Dec 01 $7,480 −$6,871 -92%
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video between 100m-125m views on day 1? Dec 01 $1,300 −$180 -14%
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get less than 50m views on day 1? Dec 01 $14,660 +$7,698 +52%
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get 125m or more views on day 1? Nov 30 $3,000 +$106 +4%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 25 $1,100 +$1,069 +97%
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November? Nov 25 $500 +$115 +23%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Nov 25 $250 +$62 +25%
Will Ronaldo x MrBeast video get >30m views on day 1? Nov 21 $350 +$4,037 +1153%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 20 $3,050 −$3,050 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $22,500 +$13,477 +60%
Will the AP call the election on November 6? Nov 06 $100 +$56 +56%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Nov 06 $400 −$16 -4%
Will the AP call the election on November 5? Nov 06 $140 −$139 -99%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $823 +$567 +69%
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election? Nov 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Ankalaev vs. Rakic Nov 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Magomedov vs. Petrosyan Nov 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Whittaker vs. Chimaev Nov 04 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Ballon d’Or? Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Erling Haaland win the Ballon d’Or? Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 73¢ $84 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $12 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: BUY 13¢ $100 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 43¢ $51 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 14¢ $80 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $129 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up $5 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $41 2d
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND A BUY 10¢ $100 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY 12¢ $250 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 34¢ $200 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $253 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $51 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes $31 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $31 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $659.72 · official $757.17 · 218 history records