Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:02:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc82d…5fd3
other · 358 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$425 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$426 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$241
Realized−$426
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses203 / 143
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)346 / 358
History coverage228d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%
Chart Positions 12 History 346 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days−$216
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 57¢ 66¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-29? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Kings Rockets 93¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-14? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Gen.G 72¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 30 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$6 +29%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? May 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? May 25 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 25 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 18 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 +$13 +62%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $20 +$4 +21%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 10 $20 +$26 +129%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 10 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $20 +$6 +29%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 04 $20 −$13 -65%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $20 +$26 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 81% −$327
sports 13% −$46
tech 3% −$23
world 1% −$17
finance 1% −$4
politics 1% +$13
crypto 0% −$16
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 45h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 13d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 13d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 19d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 19d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 19d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 19d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 19d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 19d
Will Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 19d
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 19d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 19d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 19d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 19d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 19d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 19d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 19d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 25d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 25d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem SELL Yes 100¢ $25 25d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +51.0% +36.6% 75% 75% +22.4%
≤30d 28 +8.6% -1.7% 68% 64% -27.3%
≤90d 132 -1.5% -10.9% 54% 53% -18.6%
all 346 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 51% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 51% -13.5%
10% -21.9% 44% -21.8%
15% -29.4% 36% -29.3%
20% -36.3% 27% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.25 · official $241.25 (match) · 711 history records