Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc82d…6184 other 35 markets active 9h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-24%) realized −$33 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$9
other 41% −$17
sports 14% −$7
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -35.8% -41.9% 36% 23% -34.2%
≤30d 25 -42.6% -48.0% 32% 20% -41.4%
≤90d 29 -36.1% -42.2% 31% 21% -39.7%
all 29 -36.1% -42.2% 31% 21% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.2% 21% -39.7%
10% -47.7% 21% -45.5%
15% -52.8% 10% -50.7%
20% -57.4% 7% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 35
History coverage30d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 15 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$5 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 20 $10 −$9 -96%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -92%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -90%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +55%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - L May 18 $2 $0 -20%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $2 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a dr BUY 10¢ $1 36h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 36h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 36h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 45h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 46h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $2 46h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will IR Iran vs. BUY 5¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $6 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A SELL 39¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $8 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.06 · official $6.06 (match) · 75 history records