Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc82c…c3a0 sports 510 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$235 (-5%) realized −$236 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%182W / 295L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day41.2pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$17
14 days+$0
30 days−$528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$477
other 5% −$33
world 0% −$15
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 38% -8.2%
≤30d 477 -9.8% -18.4% 38% 36% -19.1%
≤90d 477 -9.8% -18.4% 38% 36% -19.1%
all 477 -9.8% -18.4% 38% 36% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 36% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 35% -26.9%
15% -33.3% 32% -33.9%
20% -39.9% 29% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized−$236
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses182 / 295
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions31
Markets (closed)477 / 510
History coverage24d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage InterActive Philippines 35¢ 65¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+86%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 43¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 67¢ 58¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will any player record 40+ kills on a single map at Masters London 2026? Yes 28¢ 37¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 39¢ 52¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+32%)
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Yakult Brothers 56¢ 48¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 45¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Suzan Lamens 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Cameron Norrie 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Marin Cilic 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jenson Brooksby 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Fabian Marozsan 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 39¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 33¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Katie Volynets 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 46¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 187 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $4 $0 -6%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $4 $0 -11%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$8 +114%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$15 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$14 +137%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $5 +$11 +206%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $5 +$9 +172%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$15 +145%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $5 +$9 +180%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $5 +$7 +129%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $13 +$49 +365%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$10 -51%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 +$8 +119%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $10 1h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 56¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 35¢ $7 1h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic SELL Antonia Ruzic 33¢ $5 1h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch SELL Chris Rodesch 34¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Rebeka Masarova 35¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang SELL Xinyu Wang 26¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova SELL Shuai Zhang 31¢ $4 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 35¢ $4 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 30¢ $4 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik SELL Mattia Bellucci 29¢ $4 1h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Antonia Ruzic 34¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 39¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 33¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 41¢ $5 1h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 35¢ $4 1h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 45¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 42¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 39¢ $5 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 45¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Suzan Lamens 49¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 46¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 45¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Rebeka Masarova 36¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 27¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Shuai Zhang 32¢ $4 1h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 44¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 47¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 38¢ $4 1h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 46¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.47 · official $221.47 · 1089 history records