Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc82c…5504 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$5 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$3
sports 29% +$4
crypto 28% −$7
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.7% -8.0% 44% 44% -13.4%
≤30d 27 +1.7% -8.0% 44% 44% -13.4%
≤90d 27 +1.7% -8.0% 44% 44% -13.4%
all 27 +1.7% -8.0% 44% 44% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 44% -13.4%
10% -16.8% 37% -21.7%
15% -24.8% 37% -29.2%
20% -32.2% 30% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)27 / 47
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Jamal Musiala record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 59¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -27%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -55%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -80%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will David Raya be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Florian Wirtz win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +146%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 +$1 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 51m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 22¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $1 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will P BUY 27¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY 12¢ $1 2h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 11¢ $0 2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.73 · official $13.50 · 76 history records