Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc82a…cc74 crypto 687 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,740 (-4%) realized −$1,739 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%378W / 307L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$593
7 days−$532
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$1,259
other 13% −$54
crypto 9% −$550
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -22.4% -29.8% 46% 46% -46.1%
≤30d 29 +22.3% +10.6% 55% 55% -10.0%
≤90d 64 +0.4% -9.2% 48% 48% -10.8%
all 685 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 55% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 55% -13.6%
10% -19.1% 52% -21.9%
15% -26.9% 46% -29.4%
20% -34.1% 41% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$55 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$1,739
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses378 / 307
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)685 / 687
History coverage163d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 685 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $161 +$19 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$26 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $91 +$56 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $302 −$302 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 19 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $37 +$23 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $16 +$6 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$16 +65%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$76 +250%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 +$113 +550%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$139 +228%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $182 +$79 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 06 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 06 $3 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 06 $3 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 06 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 06 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 06 $3 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 06 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 23 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 23 $3 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 23 $3 +$4 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $66 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $161 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $91 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $16 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $41 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 6d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 7d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 7d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 7d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.02 · official $119.02 (match) · 1746 history records