Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc828…dbfa economics 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$425 (-29%) realized −$70 · open −$355
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%18W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$5
14 days+$7
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 53% −$696
world 18% +$45
other 14% −$3
crypto 8% −$15
politics 5% −$70
sports 2% +$25
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +158.5% +133.9% 80% 80% +2.0%
≤30d 14 +98.9% +80.0% 64% 64% -9.6%
≤90d 60 -14.1% -22.3% 30% 27% -48.6%
all 60 -14.1% -22.3% 30% 27% -48.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 27% -48.6%
10% -29.7% 23% -53.6%
15% -36.5% 18% -58.0%
20% -42.7% 18% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$355
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)60 / 71
History coverage58d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $75 $112 +$38 (+50%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+45%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $340 $31 −$309 (-91%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $41 $15 −$26 (-63%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-58%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-80%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No 50¢ 84¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+67%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$3 +133%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +108%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +108%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +85%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$5 +1011%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +117%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$3 +122%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $7 +$7 +100%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump Leave China on May 16? May 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET May 12 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3AM ET May 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1AM ET May 12 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12PM ET May 11 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5AM ET May 11 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1AM ET May 11 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 08 $5 $0 -4%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 07 $5 $0 -4%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 07 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 06 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 06 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 05 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 05 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 30? May 05 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the People's Bank of China not change rates in April? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 05 $5 +$9 +181%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $10 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $9 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $10 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $16 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $31 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $30 14h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $50 29h
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? BUY No 1¢ $3 32h
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? BUY No 1¢ $0 36h
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? BUY No 1¢ $0 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $3 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $3 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $0 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $2 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $2 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $0 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $3 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $3 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $0 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.17 · official $282.17 (match) · 348 history records