Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:01:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc826…fcb3
sports · 416 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$1,332 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,340 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$279
Realized+$1,340
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses178 / 231
Est. fees paid−$318
Open positions7
Markets (closed)409 / 416
History coverage69d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 7 History 409 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$297
14 days−$434
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $92 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $1,000 53¢ 56¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+5%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+60%)
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 HANJIN BRION 9¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-03? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Team WE 26¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Lightning Lightning 60¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Fisher College 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs ThunderTalk Gaming 11¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 60¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A 1win 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 65¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs GIANTX 18¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs GAM Esports 59¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? No 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $211 −$7 -4%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $69 −$4 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $162 −$7 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$5 -10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$1 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $352 +$143 +41%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $133 +$53 +40%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $246 +$70 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $134 −$5 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $405 −$211 -52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $150 −$6 -4%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 12 $131 +$68 +52%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $718 +$78 +11%
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? Jun 11 $149 −$12 -8%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $423 −$9 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $769 −$96 -12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $423 −$16 -4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $350 −$25 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $23 $0 +1%
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 11 $169 −$12 -7%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 11 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,246 −$58 -5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $29 −$4 -14%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 09 $97 −$7 -8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 09 $27 −$12 -47%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $36 −$2 -5%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $41 −$2 -6%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $14 −$1 -9%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 08 $105 −$6 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $12 −$3 -28%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $533 −$29 -6%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $206 −$10 -5%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $68 −$3 -5%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 06 $317 −$21 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 06 $2 $0 -23%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $335 −$128 -38%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 06 $100 −$1 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $53 −$1 -2%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $171 −$2 -1%
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 05 $13 −$1 -4%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $54 −$1 -2%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 05 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 04 $119 −$2 -2%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 04 $119 −$2 -2%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $134 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $7 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $21 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 53% +$1,750
other 37% −$76
tech 4% −$124
crypto 4% −$23
economics 2% −$140
politics 1% −$4
world 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 50m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 52m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 53m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 58m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $24 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $44 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 56¢ $155 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $45 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 62¢ $22 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -8.5% -17.3% 20% 12% -13.1%
≤30d 110 +2.7% -7.1% 32% 26% -11.1%
≤90d 409 +1.3% -8.3% 44% 39% -6.0%
all 409 +1.3% -8.3% 44% 39% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 39% -6.0%
10% -17.1% 37% -15.0%
15% -25.1% 30% -23.2%
20% -32.5% 24% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.72 · official $278.72 (match) · 1622 history records