Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc822…c185 other 142 markets active 410d ago coverage 174d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 174d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20,589 (+2%) realized +$20,589 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%76W / 66L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$8,468per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$63,371
politics 22% −$6,917
world 16% +$51
crypto 14% +$65,600
sports 10% +$6,408
tech 5% +$26,793
economics 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 142 -6.8% -15.7% 54% 42% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 42% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 31% -16.1%
15% -31.1% 22% -24.2%
20% -37.8% 17% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$7,080) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,967 vs −$2,984 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20,589
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses76 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage174d ⚠
Avg bet$8,468
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 15 $14,565 −$14,565 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 15 $9,040 +$5,425 +60%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? May 15 $73 +$27 +37%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Apr 04 $41,098 −$39,943 -97%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Mar 30 $56,386 +$36,415 +65%
Cháirez vs. Vergara Mar 30 $81 −$81 -100%
Torres vs. Dober Mar 30 $931 −$931 -100%
Moreno vs. Erceg Mar 30 $2,325 −$1,036 -45%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Mar 24 $11,044 −$11,044 -100%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 20 $502 +$1,096 +218%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Mar 19 $11,657 +$200 +2%
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? Mar 16 $7,287 +$907 +12%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Feb 23 $4,713 +$628 +13%
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July? Feb 19 $15 −$7 -48%
Coin Toss: Heads or Tails? Feb 18 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Patrick Mahomes win Super Bowl LIX MVP? Feb 18 $382 −$382 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Feb 13 $15,053 −$1,970 -13%
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Feb 12 $2,509 −$1,102 -44%
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard? Feb 12 $10,694 −$7,399 -69%
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Nati Feb 12 $3,975 +$796 +20%
Will Elon Musk tweet 800 or more times February 7-14? Feb 11 $2,883 +$339 +12%
Kanye banned on X by Monday? Feb 11 $6,371 +$2,508 +39%
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Feb 11 $32,500 −$534 -2%
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of Natio Feb 11 $868 +$60 +7%
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? Feb 10 $19,305 +$11,686 +60%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $2,975 −$2,613 -88%
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary? Feb 09 $10,469 −$4,191 -40%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4? Feb 08 $375 +$125 +33%
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Feb 07 $3,241 −$152 -5%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Feb 07 $10,283 −$5,252 -51%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Feb 07 $106 +$16 +15%
Spurs vs. Hawks Feb 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 02 $535 −$7 -1%
Magomedov vs. Page Feb 02 $659 −$659 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by January 31? Jan 27 $4,012 +$4,052 +101%
Bills vs. Chiefs Jan 27 $14,187 +$2,735 +19%
Commanders vs. Eagles Jan 26 $914 +$691 +76%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Jan 25 $1,628 −$407 -25%
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defe Jan 25 $3,375 −$3,370 -100%
Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 22? Jan 24 $2,751 −$2,751 -100%
Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday? Jan 24 $411 +$388 +94%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Fox News Oval Office interview? Jan 24 $202 +$102 +50%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fox News Oval Office inter Jan 24 $2,452 +$1,002 +41%
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? Jan 22 $52,474 +$16,849 +32%
Will 32-35 people watch Trump inauguration? Jan 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Less than 26m people watch Trump inauguration? Jan 22 $3,615 +$3,615 +100%
Will 35-38 people watch Trump inauguration? Jan 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will 29-32 people watch Trump inauguration? Jan 22 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Jan 22 $547 −$431 -79%
Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's? Jan 21 $1,348 −$994 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? BUY No 60¢ $14,565 410d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY No 66¢ $1,181 451d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? SELL No 1¢ $1,155 451d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $16,452 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $20 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $16 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $24 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $22 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $3 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $43 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $311 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $5 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $80 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $303 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $8,000 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $10 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $1,304 453d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 40¢ $14,503 453d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 26¢ $7,737 455d
Moreno vs. Erceg BUY Erceg 15¢ $83 456d
Moreno vs. Erceg BUY Erceg 14¢ $11 456d
Moreno vs. Erceg BUY Erceg 14¢ $56 456d
Moreno vs. Erceg BUY Erceg 14¢ $16 456d
Moreno vs. Erceg BUY Erceg 24¢ $131 456d
Moreno vs. Erceg BUY Erceg 26¢ $500 456d
Moreno vs. Erceg BUY Moreno 73¢ $941 456d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? SELL No 74¢ $1,614 456d
Moreno vs. Erceg BUY Erceg 30¢ $10 456d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? SELL No 74¢ $3,700 456d
Moreno vs. Erceg BUY Erceg 30¢ $577 456d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records