Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc822…a169 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,224 (+37%) realized +$3,345 · open −$1,121
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$685now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$864
7 days−$864
14 days−$864
30 days−$1,930
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 45% −$1,809
other 33% +$4,816
tech 14% −$813
sports 7% −$401
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 12 -2.4% -11.7% 8% 8% +59.4%
all 12 -2.4% -11.7% 8% 8% +59.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 8% +59.4%
10% -20.2% 8% +44.2%
15% -27.9% 8% +30.2%
20% -35.0% 8% +17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +76% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +76% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +95% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6,162 vs −$295 · ×20.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$685
Realized+$3,345
Unrealized−$1,121
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage58d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes $1,806 $685 −$1,121 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $494 −$462 -94%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $428 −$401 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 10 $501 −$468 -93%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $268 −$254 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 09 $182 −$175 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 09 $177 −$170 -96%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 23 $241 −$230 -95%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $575 +$6,162 +1071%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $344 −$328 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $562 −$549 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $215 −$205 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $24 42m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $160 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes $76 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $38 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $352 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $272 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $174 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $552 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $305 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $934 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No $404 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $54 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No $96 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No $182 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $177 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $214 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $241 34d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $6,622 40d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 40d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $6 40d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $344 40d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $562 40d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $575 40d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No $215 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $685.21 · official $685.21 (match) · 24 history records