Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C8 0xc820…49de sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$120 (+2%) realized +$438 · open −$318

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate83%5W / 1L

Drawdown19%max

Avg bet$702per market

Trades / day17.0pace

Fees−$27est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2,582now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+7.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+18.9%	+7.6%	83%	50%	+1.0%
≤30d	6	+18.9%	+7.6%	83%	50%	+1.0%
≤90d	6	+18.9%	+7.6%	83%	50%	+1.0%
all	6	+18.9%	+7.6%	83%	50%	+1.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.6%	50%	+1.0%
10%	-2.7%	33%	-8.7%
15%	-12.1%	33%	-17.5%
20%	-20.7%	17%	-25.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% too few recent

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$75 vs −$60 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×6.21 per $1 lost it wins $6.21

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2,582

Realized+$438

Unrealized−$318

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses5 / 1

Est. fees paid−$27

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$702

Trades / day17.0

Drawdown19%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5	Under	85¢	78¢	$2,300	$2,111	−$189 (-8%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5	Under	77¢	60¢	$600	$472	−$128 (-21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$101	+$73	+72%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5	Jun 25	$601	+$44	+7%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	Jun 25	$892	+$72	+8%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5)	Jun 25	$202	+$85	+42%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5)	Jun 25	$703	+$102	+14%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5)	Jun 25	$202	−$60	-30%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	81¢	$302	2m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	83¢	$1,005	6m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	90¢	$1,003	6m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	77¢	$604	7m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	100¢	$174	1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5	SELL Under	100¢	$645	1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	SELL Germany	100¢	$964	1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5)	SELL Curaçao	100¢	$286	1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5)	SELL Curaçao	100¢	$805	1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5)	SELL Curaçao	53¢	$141	1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$101	1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5)	BUY Curaçao	74¢	$202	1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	93¢	$601	2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	BUY Germany	93¢	$501	2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	BUY Germany	91¢	$391	2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5)	BUY Curaçao	70¢	$202	2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5)	BUY Curaçao	87¢	$703	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,582.29 · official $2,582.29 (match) · 17 history records