Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C8 0xc820…cddf crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%30W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$88
other 36% +$91
politics 4% +$29
sports 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -18.0% -25.8% 54% 46% -17.6%
≤30d 13 -18.0% -25.8% 54% 46% -17.6%
≤90d 52 -11.1% -19.6% 58% 52% -9.4%
all 52 -11.1% -19.6% 58% 52% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 52% -9.4%
10% -27.3% 35% -18.1%
15% -34.3% 23% -26.0%
20% -40.7% 13% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses30 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage77d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 +$8 +25%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 12 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 12 $40 +$7 +18%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $90 +$32 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 12 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 12 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 12 $14 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 12 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 12 $78 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 12 $113 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 12 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 12 $135 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 12 $15 −$12 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 12 $100 +$13 +14%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $90 +$39 +44%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 08 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 08 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 08 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 08 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 08 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 06 $10 +$3 +30%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $30 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 04 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 04 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 03 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 03 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 03 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 03 $25 +$17 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $13 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $9 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $30 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $37 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 65d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 65d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 65d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.97 · official $54.98 (match) · 140 history records