Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc81f…656e sports 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$738 (-20%) realized −$698 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$191
14 days−$191
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$15
other 34% −$596
crypto 19% −$158
politics 4% −$11
tech 1% −$9
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -62.3% -65.9% 33% 33% -33.3%
≤90d 21 -24.0% -31.2% 43% 43% -33.9%
all 85 -27.3% -34.3% 36% 32% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 32% -29.2%
10% -40.5% 26% -36.0%
15% -46.3% 25% -42.2%
20% -51.6% 22% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$23 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized−$698
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 54
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)85 / 91
History coverage182d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $193 $185 −$8 (-4%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $92 $82 −$11 (-12%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+2%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $77 $60 −$17 (-22%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes $15 $10 −$5 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $51 −$49 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $146 −$142 -98%
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy May 31 $359 +$47 +13%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $21 −$21 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $106 −$84 -79%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Apr 26 $61 +$93 +152%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 26 $5 +$3 +62%
Spread: Wild (-1.5) Apr 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 25 $30 +$31 +105%
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) Apr 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 20 $10 +$6 +65%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 20 $32 +$13 +40%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $30 −$14 -47%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Men's Group A - Switzerland vs. Czechia Feb 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 15 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 15 $115 −$114 -100%
Men's Group C - USA vs. Denmark Feb 14 $110 +$4 +4%
Men's Group A - Canada vs. Switzerland Feb 14 $97 +$13 +14%
Men's Group A - Czechia vs. Canada Feb 13 $82 +$16 +19%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $50 +$24 +47%
Drake Maye: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 Feb 09 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 09 $5 −$3 -59%
Big Game: First Team To Score Feb 08 $5 +$3 +66%
Stefon Diggs: First Touchdown Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Rhamondre Stevenson: First Touchdown Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Cooper Kupp: First Touchdown Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Kenneth Walker III: Anytime Touchdown Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Anytime Touchdown Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "DtMF" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open? Feb 08 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 08 $10 −$3 -33%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Feb 08 $25 −$5 -20%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 8? Feb 08 $18 −$17 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 08 $23 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 08 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be purple? Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Big Game: 'Seahawks Revenge' Parlay Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 2h
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes $15 2h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes $15 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 18¢ $79 2h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 35¢ $197 2h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 20¢ $77 2h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $77 2h
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $51 6d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 15¢ $146 6d
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy SELL John 86¢ $406 24d
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy BUY John 75¢ $359 24d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 52d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 52d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? SELL Yes $22 53d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 53d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 54d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 54d
Lightning vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 49¢ $51 54d
Wild vs. Stars BUY Stars 17¢ $5 57d
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) SELL Avalanche 100¢ $154 59d
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) BUY Avalanche 39¢ $61 59d
Spread: Wild (-1.5) BUY Wild 34¢ $50 60d
Oilers vs. Ducks BUY Oilers 13¢ $5 61d
Lightning vs. Canadiens SELL Canadiens 100¢ $61 61d
Lightning vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 48¢ $30 61d
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) BUY Canadiens 60¢ $5 66d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 71¢ $32 66d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $10 66d
Senators vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $17 67d
Bruins vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 60¢ $10 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $427.94 · official $427.94 (match) · 176 history records