Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc81b…ec32 other 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 232L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$40
sports 24% −$17
politics 10% −$7
culture 8% −$8
economics 6% −$4
crypto 4% −$4
world 2% $0
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 60 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 166 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage143d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $831 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $702 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $326 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $560 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $482 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $580 −$4 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $149 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $532 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $238 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $335 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $157 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $558 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $259 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $73 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $73 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $231 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $842 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $373 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $201 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $347 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $599 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $582 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $321 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $323 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $77 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $480 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $779 −$1 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 29 $111 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $68 54m
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $68 1h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $68 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $68 8h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 10h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $68 11h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 13h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $68 18h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $68 20h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $68 26h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 28h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 30h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 32h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $69 32h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $69 34h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $69 36h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $69 37h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $69 42h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $69 43h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $7 46h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $69 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $69 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $69 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $69 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $70 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $70 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $70 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $70 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $70 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.68 · official $67.68 (match) · 1441 history records