Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc818…1da3 crypto 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$426 (-17%) realized −$226 · open −$200
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%39W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days−$133
14 days−$326
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$233
sports 32% −$355
crypto 30% −$101
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -38.8% -44.6% 12% 12% -26.4%
≤30d 151 -18.0% -25.8% 26% 25% -30.7%
≤90d 152 -18.6% -26.3% 26% 25% -31.2%
all 152 -18.6% -26.3% 26% 25% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 25% -31.2%
10% -33.4% 24% -37.8%
15% -39.8% 22% -43.8%
20% -45.7% 19% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$226
Unrealized−$200
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses39 / 113
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)152 / 158
History coverage30d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Uzbekistan 32¢ 2¢ $44 $2 −$42 (-95%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $152 +$155 +102%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $21 +$113 +549%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$101 +982%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$10 +48%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$73 +1418%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $89 −$88 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 32¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 14h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 16h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Iraq? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 23h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $62 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.85 · official $104.85 (match) · 283 history records