Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc817…1811 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$97 (-7%) realized −$96 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$95
crypto 48% +$143
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -22.8% -30.2% 52% 52% -6.6%
≤30d 25 -22.8% -30.2% 52% 52% -6.6%
≤90d 25 -22.8% -30.2% 52% 52% -6.6%
all 25 -22.8% -30.2% 52% 52% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.2% 52% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 32% -15.5%
15% -43.0% 28% -23.7%
20% -48.6% 20% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$24 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+72%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $182 +$31 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $114 +$67 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $81 +$34 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$24 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $315 −$210 -67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $189 +$21 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $113 +$76 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $96 +$18 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $182 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $114 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $81 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 22¢ $27 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.81 · official $13.81 (match) · 74 history records