Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc816…4cdd
other · 41 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$18 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage481d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 1 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 16¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $71 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $143 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $21 $0 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 15 $22 $0 -1%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or May 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 10 $23 $0 -1%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 08 $18 $0 -1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 30 $8 +$1 +18%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on March 25? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 23? Mar 25 $22 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 23 $22 $0 +0%
Eastern Washington vs. Montana Mar 03 $2 +$1 +62%
Charleston vs. Northeastern Mar 03 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$3
other 29% +$2
politics 9% $0
sports 5% +$12
crypto 4% $0
weather 4% $0
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $6 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $6 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $28 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $30 6h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $8 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $29 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $36 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $36 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $36 43h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $35 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $35 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $36 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $2 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $3 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $20 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $15 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $23 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $12 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 10 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 10 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -8.7%
all 40 +2.6% -7.2% 52% 8% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 8% -7.8%
10% -16.0% 5% -16.7%
15% -24.1% 5% -24.7%
20% -31.6% 5% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.22 · official $5.22 (match) · 129 history records