Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:40:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc815…528a crypto 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49 (-11%) realized −$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%104W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$23
sports 18% −$13
other 12% −$26
politics 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -11.2% -19.7% 39% 39% -32.7%
≤30d 33 -11.2% -19.7% 39% 39% -32.7%
≤90d 238 -7.0% -15.8% 43% 41% -23.3%
all 241 -6.7% -15.6% 43% 41% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 41% -22.1%
10% -23.7% 38% -29.6%
15% -31.0% 35% -36.4%
20% -37.8% 32% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses104 / 137
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage105d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $3 +$2 +71%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$4 +188%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +194%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 16 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 16 $2 +$3 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 16 $1 +$3 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $5 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $5 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $5 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 25h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $1 25h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $1 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $5 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 28h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $2 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $5 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $5 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $5 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 36¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.57 · official $3.57 (match) · 505 history records