Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C8 0xc814…e32a politics 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$15
other 40% +$193
sports 9% −$62
crypto 5% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 123 +3.9% -6.0% 6% 4% -8.8%
all 147 +1.3% -8.3% 9% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -9.2%
10% -17.1% 4% -17.9%
15% -25.1% 4% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$2 · ×15.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)147 / 149
History coverage118d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $235 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $393 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $426 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $23 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $153 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $441 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $186 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $177 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $439 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $155 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $166 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $188 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $187 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $167 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $180 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $199 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $186 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $228 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $414 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $218 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $189 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $227 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $204 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $158 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $190 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $228 +$206 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 40h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 40h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 9d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 16d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 19d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 19d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 19d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 20d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 20d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.03 · official $56.03 (match) · 408 history records