Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:00:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc812…0fcc
other · 7 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$86 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open −$76
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$625
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage13d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%
Chart Positions 4 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$182
7 days+$182
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $214 $210 −$4 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $140 $160 +$20 (+14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $150 $140 −$10 (-7%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $197 $115 −$82 (-42%)
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $193 $0 −$193 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $214 +$182 +85%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $198 −$193 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% −$293
crypto 19% +$20
sports 16% +$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $113 46h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $199 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $100 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $151 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $202 7d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 12¢ $97 10d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 11d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 11¢ $198 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +84.9% +67.3% 100% 100% +67.3%
≤30d 3 -6.2% -15.1% 33% 33% -12.2%
≤90d 3 -6.2% -15.1% 33% 33% -12.2%
all 3 -6.2% -15.1% 33% 33% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 33% -12.2%
10% -23.3% 33% -20.6%
15% -30.7% 33% -28.2%
20% -37.5% 33% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $624.59 · official $624.59 (match) · 23 history records