Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc80f…4866 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$298 (+16%) realized +$299 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$29
crypto 6% +$63
sports 2% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 52% -9.9%
≤30d 21 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 52% -9.9%
≤90d 21 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 52% -9.9%
all 21 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 52% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 52% -9.9%
10% -25.1% 48% -18.5%
15% -32.3% 38% -26.4%
20% -38.9% 29% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$57 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$299
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $288 −$288 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $286 +$93 +33%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 −$3 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $32 −$1 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $172 +$164 +96%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $112 −$110 -99%
Netherlands to win the second half? Jun 20 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 +$44 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $122 +$66 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $131 +$16 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $77 +$54 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $98 +$45 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $81 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $272 6h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $5 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $55 19h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $54 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $32 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $41 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $141 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $337 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $46 26h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $71 27h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 28h
Netherlands to win the second half? SELL Yes 96¢ $45 28h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $135 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 42h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 93¢ $127 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.44 · official $79.44 (match) · 64 history records