trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 58¢ | 57¢ | $45 | $45 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+14%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $81 | +$3 | +3% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 09 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 09 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 23 | $139 | −$17 | -12% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Apr 20 | $155 | +$15 | +10% |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Apr 11 | $151 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 11 | $317 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Apr 11 | $289 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Apr 10 | $66 | $0 | +0% |
| Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Apr 10 | $288 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 10 | $21 | +$3 | +16% |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 10 | $97 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-02-15? | Mar 04 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Real Sociedead beat FC Midtjylland? | Feb 15 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| North Carolina vs. Clemson | Feb 13 | $6 | +$3 | +54% |
| Will Puka Nacua score a touchdown? | Feb 03 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day? | Feb 03 | $5 | +$2 | +42% |
| Trump issues 100+ Executive Orders orders on Day 1? | Jan 20 | $5 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Jan 07 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Jan 07 | $2 | +$8 | +354% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 43% | 0% | -8.3% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 43% | 0% | -8.3% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -4.4% | -13.5% | 38% | 6% | -8.4% |
| all | 24 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 38% | 17% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.4% | 17% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 12% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -26.8% | 12% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 8% | -32.9% |