Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc805…3ede politics 8 markets active 6d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$199 (-43%) realized −$68 · open −$131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$36
politics 27% −$97
tech 22% −$100
economics 11% +$2
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-60.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -56.3% -60.5% 33% 33% -94.3%
≤90d 3 -56.3% -60.5% 33% 33% -94.3%
all 3 -56.3% -60.5% 33% 33% -94.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.5% 33% -94.3%
10% -64.3% 33% -94.8%
15% -67.7% 0% -95.3%
20% -70.9% 0% -95.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$50 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 3¢ 2¢ $32 $21 −$11 (-35%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $75 $12 −$62 (-83%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $90 $4 −$86 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.19 · official $215.07 (match) · 18 history records