Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc804…5ccc crypto 790 markets active 5d ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-2%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%748W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$18
sports 11% −$26
other 8% −$27
finance 2% −$17
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -9.9% -18.5% 88% 0% -18.9%
≤30d 41 -9.9% -18.5% 88% 0% -18.9%
≤90d 506 -2.8% -12.0% 94% 2% -12.1%
all 790 -2.5% -11.8% 95% 2% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 2% -11.7%
10% -20.2% 0% -20.1%
15% -27.9% 0% -27.8%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses748 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)790 / 790
History coverage96d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 790 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: FC Juárez (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-17? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 28 $5 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on April 20? Apr 21 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 21 $5 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on April 20? Apr 21 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 21 $5 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on April 20? Apr 21 $5 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on April 20? Apr 21 $5 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on April 20? Apr 21 $5 $0 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on April 20? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $4 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.68 · official $10.00 · 2008 history records