Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc803…8e7c crypto 374 markets active 4h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$653 (-1%) realized −$657 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%357W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$24
14 days−$26
30 days−$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$90
weather 17% −$676
tech 7% +$63
other 3% +$24
finance 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +4.3% -5.6% 100% 7% -5.6%
≤30d 50 -3.1% -12.4% 92% 4% -18.9%
≤90d 158 -1.2% -10.6% 95% 1% -11.1%
all 372 -0.7% -10.1% 96% 1% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 1% -10.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -27.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$83 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$657
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses357 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)372 / 374
History coverage243d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 88¢ 94¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 19? No 93¢ 94¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $47 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $41 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 Jun 17 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $37 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $45 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $39 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $410-$420 on the final day of trading o Jun 12 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 12 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 10 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 9? Jun 09 $31 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 09 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 7? Jun 07 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 90°F or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $57 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6? Jun 06 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $70 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 on June 4? Jun 04 $54 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $60 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 4? Jun 04 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $380 on June 2? Jun 02 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $100 −$10 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27? May 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 2 May 26 $100 −$88 -88%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 26? May 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May May 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 23? May 24 $281 −$281 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on May 23? May 24 $197 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma May 22 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 21? May 21 $200 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $46 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $49 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $47 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $47 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $46 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $44 18h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 SELL No 100¢ $49 35h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $41 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $41 43h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 95¢ $47 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $45 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $40 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $24 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $40 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $17 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $39 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $40 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $41 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $38 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $40 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $35 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $28 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.51 · official $99.51 (match) · 941 history records