Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc800…2c28 weather 21 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$46 (-80%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% −$37
crypto 33% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-83.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -46.1% -51.2% 29% 29% -56.0%
≤30d 21 -82.0% -83.7% 10% 10% -86.1%
≤90d 21 -82.0% -83.7% 10% 10% -86.1%
all 21 -82.0% -83.7% 10% 10% -86.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -83.7% 10% -86.1%
10% ← realistic here -85.3% 10% -87.5%
15% -86.7% 10% -88.7%
20% -88.0% 10% -89.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $15 −$14 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? BUY Yes $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 9? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 9? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 9? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 9? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 9? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 9? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 9? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records