Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc800…5e0f other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$545 (-39%) realized −$541 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$173
14 days+$173
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$788
sports 29% +$229
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -16.5% -24.5% 44% 44% +42.4%
≤30d 10 -24.9% -32.0% 40% 40% -43.1%
≤90d 11 -31.7% -38.2% 36% 36% -54.6%
all 11 -31.7% -38.2% 36% 36% -54.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 36% -54.6%
10% -44.1% 27% -58.9%
15% -49.5% 27% -62.9%
20% -54.5% 27% -66.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$120 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$541
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions17
Markets (closed)11 / 28
History coverage32d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $19 +$2 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $16 $14 −$3 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+29%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $46 +$64 +139%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $56 +$44 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $147 +$176 +120%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $49 −$30 -62%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $521 −$512 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $222 −$217 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $60 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $110 18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $55 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $46 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $56 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $3 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $6 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 80¢ $241 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $65 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $27 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $8 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $12 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.36 · official $203.98 (match) · 52 history records