Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5

score

C7 0xc7ff…8a60 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover

Total PnL +$2,084 (+21%) realized +$1,671 · open +$413

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip

Net edge+3%after slip

Net WR68%break-even

Win rate68%19W / 9L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown80%max

Avg bet$324per market

Trades / day26.7pace

Fees−$122est.

Kalshi-fit87%portable

Net worth$1,999now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +68%

net ROI/market (all)+21.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	28	+34.3%	+21.5%	68%	68%	+21.9%
≤30d	28	+34.3%	+21.5%	68%	68%	+21.9%
≤90d	28	+34.3%	+21.5%	68%	68%	+21.9%
all	28	+34.3%	+21.5%	68%	68%	+21.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover26.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+21.5%	68%	+21.9%
10% ← realistic here	+9.9%	68%	+10.3%
15%	-0.7%	68%	-0.4%
20%	-10.5%	57%	-10.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +18% → late +51% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$301 vs −$310 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$1,999

Realized+$1,671

Unrealized+$413

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses19 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$122

Open positions3

Markets (closed)28 / 31

History coverage3d

Avg bet$324

Trades / day26.7

Drawdown80%

Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	Under	54¢	100¢	$1,071	$1,999	+$928 (+87%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5	Under	41¢	0¢	$205	$0	−$205 (-100%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5	Under	62¢	0¢	$310	$0	−$310 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5	Jun 26	$629	+$674	+107%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$254	+$346	+136%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5	Jun 26	$170	+$130	+76%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$508	+$492	+97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$300	+$700	+233%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	Jun 26	$285	+$315	+110%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5	Jun 26	$330	+$170	+52%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5	Jun 25	$15	+$17	+113%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5	Jun 25	$171	+$129	+75%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$935	+$1,065	+114%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	Jun 24	$120	−$120	-100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	Jun 24	$120	−$120	-100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 24	$82	−$82	-100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Jun 24	$240	−$240	-100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 24	$265	−$265	-100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 24	$1,545	−$1,530	-99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	Jun 24	$699	+$801	+115%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)	Jun 24	$285	−$227	-79%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$88	−$88	-100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$122	+$89	+73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$101	+$55	+55%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$225	+$275	+122%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	Jun 23	$120	−$120	-100%
Spread: England (-2.5)	Jun 23	$345	+$155	+45%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 23	$64	+$86	+133%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$194	+$83	+43%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$75	+$75	+100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$171	+$70	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	53¢	$530	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	54¢	$448	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	54¢	$2	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	54¢	$55	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	54¢	$30	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	54¢	$1	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	54¢	$4	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	47¢	$118	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	47¢	$9	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	49¢	$249	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	47¢	$239	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	44¢	$8	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	44¢	$7	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	41¢	$42	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	41¢	$167	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	62¢	$310	1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	56¢	$170	17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	30¢	$90	19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	54¢	$164	19h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	50¢	$508	19h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	66¢	$309	20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	66¢	$2	20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	66¢	$3	20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	66¢	$3	20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	66¢	$13	20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	29¢	$300	20h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Tunisia	47¢	$54	21h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Tunisia	47¢	$87	21h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Tunisia	48¢	$72	21h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Tunisia	48¢	$58	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,999.47 · official $1,999.47 (match) · 104 history records