Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C7 0xc7fc…69a1 sports 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 895d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-2%) realized −$89 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%33W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$57
14 days−$158
30 days+$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% +$458
other 18% −$136
world 17% +$44
politics 15% −$397
weather 14% +$40
crypto 7% −$82
tech 2% +$13
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -46.7% -51.8% 23% 23% -18.3%
≤30d 70 -19.2% -26.9% 34% 34% -0.0%
≤90d 85 -19.2% -26.9% 34% 34% -3.4%
all 98 -23.4% -30.7% 34% 34% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 34% -12.1%
10% -37.3% 34% -20.5%
15% -43.4% 32% -28.2%
20% -48.9% 27% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$22 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

895d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses33 / 65
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)98 / 103
History coverage895d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? Yes 46¢ 60¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+29%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Yes 20¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$25 +61%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$96 +188%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $46 +$97 +212%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$49 +474%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 07 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $41 +$87 +212%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 05 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $21 −$10 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $36 −$35 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $20 +$22 +109%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $30 +$14 +47%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 04 $57 −$55 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $112 +$49 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $21 +$9 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$33 +209%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $25 +$42 +165%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $10 +$9 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $15 +$23 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $51 +$65 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $65 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 4h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 16h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 27h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 41h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 63¢ $20 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 76¢ $25 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $116 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $15 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $31 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 7d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 7¢ $5 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.36 · official $112.36 (match) · 210 history records