Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7f9…d198 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$294 (-3%) realized −$532 · open +$326
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,014per market
Trades / day343.0pace
Fees−$358est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$706now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$532
7 days−$532
14 days−$532
30 days−$532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$189
other 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -35.9% -42.0% 40% 40% -21.7%
≤30d 10 -35.9% -42.0% 40% 40% -21.7%
≤90d 10 -35.9% -42.0% 40% 40% -21.7%
all 10 -35.9% -42.0% 40% 40% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover343.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.0% 40% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -47.5% 10% -29.2%
15% -52.6% 0% -36.0%
20% -57.3% 0% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
21.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$158 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$706
Realized−$532
Unrealized+$326
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$358
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,014
Trades / day343.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 17¢ 32¢ $380 $706 +$326 (+86%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 23¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Top Esports 17¢ 0¢ $451 $0 −$451 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 14¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 21¢ 0¢ $413 $0 −$413 (-100%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$17 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $232 +$57 +25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $385 −$172 -45%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $267 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,745 −$218 -12%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $386 −$87 -23%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $410 +$76 +19%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,655 +$258 +16%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $459 −$451 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $102 +$22 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $82 0m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 11¢ $21 1m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 9¢ $21 2m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 15¢ $41 3m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 19¢ $310 3m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $107 5m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 28¢ $97 5m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 24¢ $166 5m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 21¢ $310 7m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $52 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 36¢ $55 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 52¢ $159 12m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 54¢ $327 12m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $412 14m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $564 22m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 26¢ $237 23m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $7 25m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $374 25m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $411 27m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 20¢ $273 29m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $76 33m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $23 33m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $61 34m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $89 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $75 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $14 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 73¢ $217 36m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 72¢ $285 37m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $101 40m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 85¢ $48 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $705.65 · official $705.65 (match) · 343 history records