Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C7 0xc7f2…3501 other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$102 (+6%) realized +$120 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate69%48W / 22L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$62
14 days+$102
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$38
sports 23% +$95
world 12% +$24
politics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.8% -7.9% 79% 39% +0.5%
≤30d 70 +0.1% -9.4% 69% 40% -1.9%
≤90d 70 +0.1% -9.4% 69% 40% -1.9%
all 70 +0.1% -9.4% 69% 40% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 40% -1.9%
10% -18.1% 33% -11.3%
15% -26.0% 10% -19.9%
20% -33.3% 6% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized+$120
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses48 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)70 / 83
History coverage14d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $33 +$14 +41%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $2 −$1 -58%
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 +$2 +30%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13 +$1 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $13 −$2 -13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $33 +$3 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 +$3 +29%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 24 $54 +$4 +7%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $44 +$4 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $162 +$24 +15%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$1 +27%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $47 +$2 +5%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 23 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 $0 +5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +28%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +28%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 20 $3 +$1 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $69 −$7 -10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 +$3 +302%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$5 +23%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $79 +$21 +27%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -92%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 17 $11 −$1 -6%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $11 $0 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 +$4 +18%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 17 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $59 +$31 +52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $46 +$12 +25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$34 -54%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 20¢ $1 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 3h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 3h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL No 87¢ $17 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $17 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $25 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL No 83¢ $19 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $18 4h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $5 8h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 9h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 9h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 9h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 9h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 89¢ $4 9h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 9h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 9h
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $5 9h
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $5 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 20h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals SELL No 72¢ $37 25h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 71¢ $7 25h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $2 26h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $3 26h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.50 · official $232.50 (match) · 221 history records