Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc7f0…95ff other 26 markets active 6d ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$5 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate89%17W / 2L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 20% $0
crypto 19% +$3
sports 16% $0
world 15% $0
finance 10% +$2
economics 9% −$1
politics 8% +$1
culture 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 6 +5.5% -4.6% 83% 33% -6.2%
≤90d 16 +5.3% -4.7% 88% 31% -6.3%
all 19 +6.4% -3.7% 89% 32% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 32% -5.4%
10% -13.0% 5% -14.5%
15% -21.4% 0% -22.7%
20% -29.1% 0% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×11.53 per $1 lost it wins $11.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses17 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)19 / 26
History coverage96d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 54¢ 31¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+51%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $7 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 05 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 05 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $20 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 04 $10 +$1 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +5%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 01 $10 +$1 +11%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 28 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 18 $8 +$3 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 8? Mar 11 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $0 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 6d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 11d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 85¢ $10 24d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 24d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $6 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 86¢ $4 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 79¢ $7 31d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 94¢ $9 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $15 31d
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 31d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 31¢ $10 31d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $6 38d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 92¢ $6 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? BUY No 95¢ $5 47d
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 48d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $6 48d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of SELL No 95¢ $5 48d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 48d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $7 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.58 · official $22.30 (match) · 93 history records