Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C7 0xc7ef…8580 sports 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 244d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$83 (+13%) realized +$82 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$79
14 days+$79
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$123
other 27% +$7
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +75.0% +58.3% 68% 50% +10.2%
≤30d 22 +75.0% +58.3% 68% 50% +10.2%
≤90d 22 +75.0% +58.3% 68% 50% +10.2%
all 25 +61.8% +46.4% 64% 48% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.4% 48% +15.2%
10% +32.4% 44% +4.2%
15% +19.6% 36% -5.9%
20% +7.9% 32% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +99% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)25 / 36
History coverage244d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Over 50¢ 55¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 43¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $90 +$22 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $63 +$24 +38%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$4 +188%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +12%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlan Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +414%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$7 +355%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$36 +711%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $17 −$6 -36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $22 −$22 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $24 −$1 -6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -14%
Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik Oct 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Chennai Open: Joanna Garland vs Mei Yamaguchi Oct 30 $80 +$76 +95%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $6 19m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $112 25m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $90 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $86 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $63 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 35¢ $3 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $3 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY 28¢ $5 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $12 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 4h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlan SELL 79¢ $55 4h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlan BUY 71¢ $50 17h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Australia 66¢ $9 22h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 14¢ $2 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $2 23h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 72¢ $12 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.94 · official $142.97 (match) · 80 history records